After Georgia’s indictment of Donald Trump, our new national poll shows he not only beats Biden, but he would defeat the current president in an electoral landslide.
The McLaughlin national survey finds Trump leads Biden 47% to 43% — up 2 points this month alone.
Even more remarkable, with our voter model for this poll we assigned 4 more points of Biden 2020 voters than Trump 2020 voters.
This means looking to 2024 there is an 8-point turnaround in favor of Trump from the 2020 election. Biden voters are switching to Trump.
But here’s the really big news.
In the key battleground states Trump leads Biden 49% to 41%.
If the election was today, Trump would defeat Biden in an electoral landslide.
Our poll – and other national surveys are confirming a huge turnaround for Trump.
Remember, Donald Trump never won the popular vote in the 2016 and 2020 national popular vote, and almost all polls had him losing the popular vote in both elections.
But now our poll and others show him leading.
We believe this is the real reason Joe Biden is desperate to keep Trump off the ballot and, if he can, put him in jail.
Trump appears to be the only Republican candidate who can solidly defeat Joe Biden.
There are two fundamental trends which are evident in our most recent national poll that are projecting Donald Trump towards victory in 2024.
Our recent national poll was completed after the announcement of the Fulton County indictment of President Trump and right before the Republican debate.
This national poll of 1,000 likely voters (+/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval), was completed between August 15th and 23rd.
Despite the indictments, Donald Trump remains the overwhelming frontrunner for the Republican nomination and leads his nemesis Joe Biden.
First, Donald Trump is smartly running a campaign that is focused on defeating Joe Biden, whom he has branded as “the single worst president in American history.”
Public opinion agrees with President Trump:
- Joe Biden’s job approval remains decidedly negative: approve 43%, disapprove 55%. And 72% of undecided voters disapprove the job Biden is doing. Most of the undecided vote is a hidden vote for Trump.
- Under Biden, 67% of all voters believe the country is on the wrong track. Only 25% say it’s headed in the right direction. And 83% of the undecided presidential voters say it’s on the wrong track.
- A solid majority of 64% of the voters say that the economy is getting worse and only 32% believe it is getting better.
- A large 83% of the voters say that they have been negatively affected by inflation, among whom 45% are struggling to keep up, and afford basic necessities.
- Only 37% of the voters are favorable to Vice President Kamala Harris. 54% are unfavorable. She remains Joe Biden’s impeachment insurance policy: “remove me and look what you get.”
- Bidenomics is a poor brand name with only 22% of the voters being favorable and 46% unfavorable. Maybe it’s too like Bidinflation? Seems that Bud Light would be a more popular brand these days. Only 36% of the voters say that Bidenomics has been good for the economy. A solid 49% say it’s been bad for the economy.
- Trump is winning on the issues that matter most to the voters. Economics/inflation are the top concern among 45% of the voters and these voters prefer Trump over Biden 57% to 33%.
- Social issues like Medicare/Social Security, healthcare, climate and education matter most to only 27% of the voters and they vote for Biden 60% to 31%.
- Security issues like the border, crime and national defense matter most to 14% of the voters who prefer Trump over Biden 55% to 37%.
- As pundits speculate about Joe Biden’s health and actuarial outcomes, Donald Trump’s position strengthens over Kamala Harris as he leads her 50% to 40%. Democrats do not have a winning option with her. Instead, they are doubling down on the Biden corruption and failure.
- With Trump beating Biden, Republicans lead in the generic congressional ballot 48% to 42%.
The race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is no longer close. Trump is clearly leading.
It’s still early, but Trump has pulled off a stunning turnaround since the 2020 election.