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| Excellent analysis of the details.
Many new details. Well worth the read. |
Trump assassination attempt: separating fact from fiction
Where truth is stranger than fiction…
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Let’s look at what really happened.
My students know that I love teaching history by map. Maps provide so much information, even before you know anything specific about a country, city, battle, etc. When talking about the events, we need to see, mentally, the place where the event we are talking about took place, and its relation to other relevant places.
Trump’s rally was organized on the grounds of Butler Farm Show Inc., in Butler, Pennsylvania, about 40 to 50 minutes due north of Pittsburgh, depending on taking Route 79/279 or State Highway 8.
he general surroundings of the place look as follows:
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The long fields, just above Main Street, is where the rally took place.
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Here, we see all the main elements. The podium where Trump gave his speech, the cranes with the flag, the bleachers behind Trump, the rooftop where the Secret Service Sniper team was, and roof where the assassin took his shot from.
The following picture by the New York Times shows those main elements everyone talks about, adding the location of the second sniper team, from local police tactical teams.
Let’s look at the story this will tell us already:
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Figuring out the position of the assassin, shows something very remarkable: both sniper teams could not see the assassin, because a tree was in the way. (Look back up, two pictures, the one with the cranes and the bleachers: see the tree, and how it is widest roughly at the height where the shooter would have been?) The shooter, however, had an unrestricted view on the podium, wherever on the roof he would have positioned himself (see dotted red line from edge roof). This explains the fact that neither sniper team did anything. They couldn’t do anything, as they didn’t see anything.
One of the videos of the rally goers that showed the shooter on the roof gives another important clue: about 19 seconds in, you hear a man yell “He’s turning this way!” followed almost immediately with a final ‘pop’, with a different sound than the previous pops. As the assassin crawled to his right, likely to get a better view of Trump, a new angle away from the Secret Service agents covering him, away from the boom of the first forklift with the speaker array, the counter-sniper team finally got a bead on him, and immediately took the shot. Incredible shooting!
That the assassin moved to his right, is human instinct: when you see your target disappear towards your left, behind an obstacle, our instinct tells us to move right to clear that obstacle and regain our line of sight… If he had turned to the left, he could have regained line of sight, as well, while staying out of view of the sniper teams! The obstacle could also be the large black box (?) visible to the left of the podium, between the ‘loop’ of the red walkway towards the podium:
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Looking at the above reconstruction, you can see that the other forklift that got hit in the hydraulics, lowering its speaker array as a result while spraying fluid from a pinpoint hole, was almost directly behind the podium, in a straight line with the shooter, further validating my reconstruction above.
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It also shows how Trump, by turning towards the main billboard with the immigration graph behind the left bleacher (left, when looking from the audience), had his head indeed fully parallel to the view line of the assassin, allowing the bullet to simply graze his head, hitting only his ear, and nothing else.
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Understanding that angle, helps understand that the shooter had an almost perfect shot lined up, hitting trump roughly halfway between center of his turned head and the edge of his head, together with his shoulders moving sligtly forward to look behind him, to the right. But just that small turn was enough to turn that assured hit into a near miss, hitting only the ear lobe. How could he have missed? It was a much better shot than we realize!
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So this is the timeline: the shooter crawled in position, invisible to both sniper teams. He had a clear line of sight, and took a shot, hit Trump’s ear, followed by 2 fast shots, less carefully aimed (surprised that he missed that first shot?), that then missed. Trump ducked (he likely heard the bullets whistle by, snapping him to move and take cover), and as the Secret Service agents dove onto the President, protecting him with their bodies, the assassin fired a quick volley of about 5 shots, almost as if in a panic, which could not have been properly aimed. Then after a few seconds, a last, single shot rings out, from a different rifle.
The second volley of shots is likely the volley that killed the bystanders: aimed lower, trying to adjust for the lower position of Trump who had ducked, as the Secret was covering him. Now, however, the raised part of the first bleacher to the left was in the way, and the people on top of it… Trying to adjust his position to get a better view, the assassin, unaware of this fact, left his protected area of ‘invisibility’, was spotted by sniper team 2, and instantly taken out.
This solves a whole lot of questions about the sniper teams themselves, and their perceived inaction. They did not shoot, as they had no clear target: the tree was in the way! Only at the last moment, when the assassin moved, could a shot be taken.
This move likely explains why the gun and the body were several feet apart, after the assassin was killed:
Let’s look at the story this will tell us already:
|
Figuring out the position of the assassin, shows something very remarkable: both sniper teams could not see the assassin, because a tree was in the way. (Look back up, two pictures, the one with the cranes and the bleachers: see the tree, and how it is widest roughly at the height where the shooter would have been?) The shooter, however, had an unrestricted view on the podium, wherever on the roof he would have positioned himself (see dotted red line from edge roof). This explains the fact that neither sniper team did anything. They couldn’t do anything, as they didn’t see anything.
One of the videos of the rally goers that showed the shooter on the roof gives another important clue: about 19 seconds in, you hear a man yell “He’s turning this way!” followed almost immediately with a final ‘pop’, with a different sound than the previous pops. As the assassin crawled to his right, likely to get a better view of Trump, a new angle away from the Secret Service agents covering him, away from the boom of the first forklift with the speaker array, the counter-sniper team finally got a bead on him, and immediately took the shot. Incredible shooting!
That the assassin moved to his right, is human instinct: when you see your target disappear towards your left, behind an obstacle, our instinct tells us to move right to clear that obstacle and regain our line of sight… If he had turned to the left, he could have regained line of sight, as well, while staying out of view of the sniper teams! The obstacle could also be the large black box (?) visible to the left of the podium, between the ‘loop’ of the red walkway towards the podium:
|
Looking at the above reconstruction, you can see that the other forklift that got hit in the hydraulics, lowering its speaker array as a result while spraying fluid from a pinpoint hole, was almost directly behind the podium, in a straight line with the shooter, further validating my reconstruction above.
|
It also shows how Trump, by turning towards the main billboard with the immigration graph behind the left bleacher (left, when looking from the audience), had his head indeed fully parallel to the view line of the assassin, allowing the bullet to simply graze his head, hitting only his ear, and nothing else.
|
Understanding that angle, helps understand that the shooter had an almost perfect shot lined up, hitting trump roughly halfway between center of his turned head and the edge of his head, together with his shoulders moving sligtly forward to look behind him, to the right. But just that small turn was enough to turn that assured hit into a near miss, hitting only the ear lobe. How could he have missed? It was a much better shot than we realize!
|
So this is the timeline: the shooter crawled in position, invisible to both sniper teams. He had a clear line of sight, and took a shot, hit Trump’s ear, followed by 2 fast shots, less carefully aimed (surprised that he missed that first shot?), that then missed. Trump ducked (he likely heard the bullets whistle by, snapping him to move and take cover), and as the Secret Service agents dove onto the President, protecting him with their bodies, the assassin fired a quick volley of about 5 shots, almost as if in a panic, which could not have been properly aimed. Then after a few seconds, a last, single shot rings out, from a different rifle.
The second volley of shots is likely the volley that killed the bystanders: aimed lower, trying to adjust for the lower position of Trump who had ducked, as the Secret was covering him. Now, however, the raised part of the first bleacher to the left was in the way, and the people on top of it… Trying to adjust his position to get a better view, the assassin, unaware of this fact, left his protected area of ‘invisibility’, was spotted by sniper team 2, and instantly taken out.
This solves a whole lot of questions about the sniper teams themselves, and their perceived inaction. They did not shoot, as they had no clear target: the tree was in the way! Only at the last moment, when the assassin moved, could a shot be taken.
This move likely explains why the gun and the body were several feet apart, after the assassin was killed:
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This leaves new questions: what communication was there between the sniper teams and other Law Enforcement on the ground, and vice versa? Apparently, the sniper teams were aware of the presence of a suspect, likely knew he was armed, but, as I showed above, could not see him because of the tree. Why was there no other sniper team to cover the angles both sniper teams behind Trump could not see? Why were both sniper teams positioned at the same side of their protectee, thereby leaving a whole lot of angles and areas uncovered?
A lot of the other questions remain unanswered. How did the assassin get there? Why was there so little Secret Service protection? Why were at least some of the Secret Service agents present looking so hopelessly under-qualified and inexperienced? Etc.
To answer some of the questions I saw online: the main sniper team, with ‘police’ visible on the back, is indeed part of Secret Service. Blowing up that image shows that there is small print below the words ‘police’, stating ‘Secret Service’.
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Now, onto some other, and serious, problems:
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We have seen the images of the Secret Service agent who was woefully too short to adequately protect Donald Trump, with his towering 6 feet 3 inches. Thanks to this oversight, however, we now have that absolutely iconic picture, with Trump completely overshadowing the short agent, when they all got up again, pump his fist in the air to signal the crowd that he was alive, and in good spirit. “Fight! Fight! Fight!”
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Or the other agent, fumbling with her handgun, unable to holster it. Now, the stress and panic of the moment can overtake anyone, but the better trained, the more experienced, the less you should see such fumbling on what should be a very well-trained move, down to muscle memory. Or worse, hiding while others jump on Donald Trump to protect him with their bodies. Was she really qualified for this personal protective detail? Fully trained, and aware of what her first responsibility was?
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Some commentators are merciless:
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But, as any good meme, it has a kernel of truth.
Kimberly Cheatle, the Secret Service Director, had made it her goal to transform the Secret Service following the DEI tenets. Project 30×30, where she wants 30% female Agents by 2030.
For the Secret Service Bureau of Pittsburgh to divert resources away from Trump, towards Jill Biden, would mean that there was a threat assessment to justify that. Who wrote that assessment, who signed of on that? The result is clear: a very drained and anemic shell of protection left for Trump, creating a perfect storm.
Susan Crabtree’s later full claims were these, from her X account:
New info from a source in the Secret Service community — Trump’s usual protective Secret Service detail was worked so hard (working 7 days a week with no days off) that many of agents assigned Saturday were temporary replacements from different field offices.
This is not the usual protocol for sitting presidents and vice presidents but “typical” for former presidents, (although no former presidents have run again in modern history.)
“Trump has a permanent detail, however it’s much smaller in the amount of bodies,” the source said. “His detail has been worked so hard with all the travel that they’re working 7 days a week with shift changes. so HQ sends in temp agents to supplement – not a good scenario. Mission Failure, IMHO.”
Where were the resources?
The Pittsburgh USSS Field Office had a Jill Biden visit and designated a lot of resources to her.
“That is f—-ing unbelievable to me,” the source remarked.
Another Secret Service source says approval for the Counter Sniper Team was only granted the day before the rally – and that is not enough time for a two-man team to do their survey.
(Cont) …”That’s nowhere near enough time – a site like that should have had at least three Secret Service counter-sniper teams at the very least.”
I’ll make this correction – It’s SAIC Curran, not Kern. I misheard his name.
This is despite a lot of claims that Trump’s team repeatedly had asked for extra protection, but got denied each time.
https://freedom-vaca.org/vaca-blog-tieng-viet-nam/
https://freedom-vaca.org/vaca-main-blog-english-articles/
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