From: Lion Nguyen <luonguyen5920>
Date: Wed, Sep 30, 2026 at 23:12
Mời nghe:
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/18aerEZKnE/?mibextid=wwXIfr
https://www.youtube.com/live/adV0XNRAJts?is=xSFQ2dcZK1fPElLL
Fed’s preferred gauge shows core inflation at 3.0% in August, much lighter than expected
WED, SEP 30 2026
Jeff Cox
- The August personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s main inflation gauge, saw an increase of 3.4% on headline and 3% for core, both well below estimates.
-
In addition, the Commerce Department reported stronger-than-expected spending numbers for the month, though income was light.
-
Markets priced in a lower probability for an October rate hike following the release, although they still expect an increase in December.
-
Second-quarter GDP was revised sharply higher, due to increases in consumer and government spending as well as private sales.
-
Consumer prices posted a smaller than-expected increase in August- from a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month gain at 3.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively.
Excluding food and energy, PCE posted a 0.2% climb that put the annual core level at 3%. The respective forecasts were for 0.3% and 3.3%.
Although the Fed officially follows the headline PCE number, officials generally consider core a better gauge of longer-term trends.
While the annual increases were less than expected, they came as the Bureau of Economic Analysis changed the way it computes several components of the index. The BEA adjusted methodology for how it measures prices for legal services, software and computer accessories and portfolio management.
The revisions lower the core July PCE level by 0.36 percentage point.
Stock market futures gained ground following the report while Treasury yields were negative. Traders priced in less of a chance of a Fed rate hike in October, pushing the next expected increase to December.
“This is good news for investors worried about the recent surge in bond yields, and it bolsters the case for not hiking in October,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “However, it’s also relatively old data at this point that doesn’t reflect this month’s surge in diesel prices.”
The report also shows that personal income rose 0.2% while spending increased 0.9%, against the respective consensus for 0.4% and 0.8%.
Inflation still high, GDP revised up
Both PCE levels are still considerably higher than the central bank’s 2% target, raising the possibility that the Fed will follow up its September interest rate hike with another increase at either of its remaining meetings this year — in October or, more likely, December.
“Even after major methodological revisions, PCE inflation is still running hot however you cut it,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group. “The economy is running hot, policy remains easy, and the Fed’s challenge is figuring out how much restraint is needed. That’s a tailwind for stocks as we move into Q4.”
Energy were the primary culprit for the price rise in August, although many other sectors costs also showed gains. Gasoline jumped 4.4% and transportation services accelerated by 1.4%. Energy goods and services climbed 2.3%.
Goods and services prices both posted 0.3% increases.
“The PCE Inflation data – the Federal Reserve’s favorite – shows no progress in August on inflation,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "And it’s inevitable that September will be higher. Meanwhile, American consumers are feeling the squeeze."
In other economic news Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product increased at a 2.2% annualized rate in the second quarter, according to the final of three estimates. That was up sharply from the prior estimate of 1.5% and reflected greater contributions from consumer and government spending as well as investment.
Real final sales to private domestic purchases, a metric Fed officials watch closely to gauge underlying demand in the economy, increased 4.6%, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point.
Inflation measures for the April-through-June period were also slightly lower, with headline PCE prices rising 5% and core at 3.3%, each 0.3 percentage points below the prior estimate.
For the Fed, the various economic signals have posed a quandary.
Policymakers typically can look through price spikes brought on by exogenous factors such as tariffs and the kind of supply shocks driven by the war with Iran. However, the persistence of the price increases, coupled with the unknowns of the artificial intelligence breakout, has posed challenges to traditional modes of thinking.
Thị trường trước đó đã tính đến khả năng cao là Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) sẽ tiếp tục tăng lãi suất vào tháng 10, sau đợt tăng 0,25 điểm phần trăm hồi tháng 9. Tuy nhiên, những phát biểu hôm thứ Ba của ông John Williams – Chủ tịch Fed chi nhánh New York, một nhân vật có tầm ảnh hưởng lớn – đã làm giảm bớt kỳ vọng này; đồng thời, các dữ liệu công bố hôm thứ Tư càng khiến triển vọng về một đợt tăng lãi suất trong tháng 10 trở nên mờ nhạt hơn.
"Với các biện pháp chính sách đã được thực hiện tại cuộc họp tháng 9, chúng tôi không cần phải hành động vội vã và vẫn còn thời gian để thu thập thêm thông tin," ông Williams phát biểu; những lời này đã ngay lập tức khiến thị trường điều chỉnh lại các kỳ vọng.
Ông Williams cũng cho biết thêm rằng ông vẫn cho rằng một đợt tăng lãi suất nữa "có thể là phù hợp vào cuối năm nay", khiến thị trường chuyển hướng kỳ vọng sang tháng 12 cho đợt tăng tiếp theo.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/feds-preferred-gauge-showed-core-inflation-at-3point0percent-in-august-much-lighter-than-expected.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Fed’s preferred gauge showed core inflation at 3.0% in August, less than expected
Liên Minh Bảo Hiến Mỹ Gốc Việt
Vietnamese American Conservative Alliance (VACA)
https://freedom-vaca.org/vaca-blog-tieng-viet-nam/
https://freedom-vaca.org/vaca-main-blog-english-articles/